author:Sun Weiqing, Ziyun

In 2024, Gaza suffered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, the debt level of developing countries continued to rise, and nearly half of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals made little progress. The budget cuts of many European countries for development cooperation and Trump's victory increased the uncertainty of global development cooperation. The United Nations Future Summit laid the foundation for reshaping multilateralism. International Development Watch will review with you the far-reaching international development events in 2024.

1.Nearly halfLittle progress on UN Sustainable Development Goals

（UN/Figure)

The 2024 Sustainable Development Goals Report released by the United Nations (UN) pointed out that there are only six years left to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but the UN Sustainable Development Agenda has made little progress so far. Only 17% of the Sustainable Development Goals have made good progress, nearly half of the goals have made limited or general progress, and more than one-third of the goals have stagnated or even regressed. Compared with 2019, 23 million more people fell into extreme poverty in 2022, and more than 100 million people suffered from hunger. 2023 became the hottest year in history, with global temperature rise approaching the critical point of 1.5°C. The Sustainable Development Goals Progress: 2024 Gender Express jointly released by the United Nations Women (UNWOMEN) and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) pointed out that according to current trends, gender parity in parliament may not be achieved until 2063. Women and girls will have to wait another 137 years to get rid of poverty. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) also released the eighth Sustainable Development Goals Progress Report in Asia and the Pacific in February this year. The report shows that if the current pace of development continues, the Asia-Pacific region will not be able to achieve all 17 Sustainable Development Goals before 2062, 32 years later than the 2030 target for the Sustainable Development Goals. There are also some bright spots among the many pessimistic data. First, the world has made great progress in deploying renewable energy, highlighting a clear path to achieve a fair energy transition. Second, girls in most regions are on par with or even ahead of boys in completing all levels of education. Third, the Internet penetration rate has increased by about 70% in eight years, indicating that rapid transformation is achievable. Fourth, the progress made in preventing and treating HIV provides a reference for the world to defeat other infectious diseases.

2.COP29 sets new targets for climate finance

（COP29.AZ/Photo)

On November 24, 2024, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) closed in Baku, Azerbaijan. COP29 achieved a series of results. Developed countries pledged in the New Collective Quantified Target (NCQG) for Climate Finance: By 2035, they will raise $300 billion in public climate finance annually to support developing countries in addressing climate change. This commitment is far lower than the climate finance target of more than $1.3 trillion per year required by many developing countries, but it is a significant increase from the $100 billion per year target due in 2025. COP29 established the framework and standards for a global carbon trading system managed by the United Nations in accordance with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, allowing government-approved international carbon credit trading, which is expected to release billions of dollars in climate funds to help developing countries reduce emissions and promote sustainable development. The parties seek to implement the loss and damage fund established at COP28, which is seen as a key international fund to address the inevitable harm of climate change. In addition, countries are expected to submit new Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) by February 2025 to ensure that nationally determined commitments are consistent with the emission reduction levels set by the Paris Agreement. There are many regrets at COP29. Some developing countries accused the $300 billion climate finance target of being "insignificant" and unable to "solve the huge challenges we all face." The NCQG agreement calls on all parties, including the private sector and emerging countries, to work hard to achieve the $1.3 trillion climate finance target by 2035. Due to opposition from major oil-producing countries, COP29 ultimately failed to reach an agreement on fossil fuel-related content. Given that developed countries have failed to fulfill previous financial commitments, there is still uncertainty as to whether the $300 billion commitment can be fulfilled. The position of US President-elect Donald Trump on climate issues has also increased uncertainty in future climate negotiations. The 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) will be held in Brazil in November 2025.

3.European Countries Cut Development Cooperation Budgets

（Ahram Online/picture)

In the second half of 2024, the budgets of the European Union and European countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Sweden proposed to cut the development cooperation budget. The EU plans to cut 2 billion euros (about 2.2 billion U.S. dollars) in development cooperation spending over the next three years to free up funds for supporting priorities such as Ukraine and immigration. The first budget of the new British government shows that the proportion of the official development assistance budget to gross national income (GNI) will drop from 0.58% in 23-24 to 0.5% in 24-25 and 25-26. Since nearly 30% of the official development cooperation budget will be used for refugee asylum in the UK, the actual budget expenditure of the UK's overseas aid will be greatly reduced. France's draft budget for 2025 proposes to reduce the 2025 official development assistance (ODA)-related budget from 5.7 billion euros (about 6.3 billion U.S. dollars) in 2024 to 4.4 billion euros (about 4.9 billion U.S. dollars), a decrease of 23%. The German Parliament's draft federal budget for 2025 plans to cut the budgets of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (AA) and the Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) by 836 million euros (about 925 million U.S. dollars) and 937 million euros (about 1 billion U.S. dollars), respectively, with a reduction of about 8% and 12%, respectively, of which the humanitarian aid budget is expected to decrease by 47%. From 2026 to 2028, Sweden's annual official development assistance allocation is expected to decrease by 3 billion Swedish kronor (about 300 million U.S. dollars), a decrease of about 5.4% from the previous budget cycle. The Dutch government announced a cut of 300 million euros (about 300 million U.S. dollars) from the 2025 development cooperation budget. In addition, Sweden and the Netherlands announced that they would no longer use 1% and 0.7% of their gross national income for the development cooperation budget, respectively. The world's progress in achieving the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is worrying. More than one-third of the Sustainable Development Goals have stagnated or regressed. The United Nations' "Compact for the Future" adopted in September 20024 supports the acceleration of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and promises to narrow the funding gap. In this context, European countries' cuts in development cooperation budgets will lead to more challenges for developing countries in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

4.Trump's election changes the landscape of global development cooperation

（CNN/Figure)

With Trump re-elected as US President and the Republican Party gaining a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the international development sector is preparing for a major shift in US foreign aid. It is expected that US foreign aid in areas such as health, climate, reproductive health, gender diversity, and reform of the international financial system may face shocks, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and UN agencies will also face funding cuts. The health and climate sectors may be the first to be hit. The Financial Times and the New York Times reported that Trump may announce the withdrawal of the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) on his first day in office, and Trump's transition team has also drafted an executive order and announcement to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Combined with Trump's approach in his last term, it is not surprising to withdraw from the WHO and the Paris Agreement again. In addition, Trump's position on sexual reproductive health and rights is very different from that of the Biden administration. It is expected that the Trump administration will once again ban the United States from providing family planning funds to organizations that provide abortion services or information. As the world's largest official development assistance provider, the United States has a large number of development projects around the world and in many fields. Foreign aid priorities include global health and security, responding to the climate crisis, promoting democracy and good governance, and addressing discrimination and inequality. In 2023, the total official development assistance of the United States will be US$66 billion (preliminary data), accounting for 0.24% of the gross national income. Analysts believe that after Trump takes office, the United States may cut its foreign aid budget by 10% to 15%. Industry insiders generally worry that Trump may weaken multilateral institutions such as UN agencies, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund again after taking office, but the specific operation is still unclear. On the positive side, institutions such as the US International Development Finance Corporation that promote private sector cooperation and faith-based development aid groups may benefit from the new policies of the Trump administration. In addition, the localization policy promoted by the United States Agency for International Development may continue due to its lower cost and better results.

5.UN Future Summit promotes reshaping of multilateralism

(United Nations/picture)

On September 22, leaders of various countries adopted the "Compact for the Future" at the United Nations Future Summit, which aims to ensure that multilateral institutions adapt to today's realities and future challenges. The "Compact for the Future" points out that today's global challenges are beyond the ability of any country to solve alone, and urges countries to strengthen solidarity, fulfill existing commitments and meet new challenges and opportunities. The "Compact for the Future" focuses on five themes: sustainable development and development financing, international peace and security, science, technology, innovation and digital cooperation, youth and future generations, and transforming global governance, and proposes 56 broad actions to address the world's greatest challenges. The "Compact for the Future" supports the acceleration of the "2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development" and promises to narrow the financing gap. The document reaffirms the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and promises to increase efforts to address climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. The "Compact for the Future" proposes to increase the voice of developing countries in the decision-making of international financial institutions, multilateral development banks to mobilize more funds to help developing countries meet development needs, and all parties work together to ensure that developing countries can borrow sustainably. The difficult negotiations around the "Compact for the Future" reflect the differences between developed and developing countries, as well as the differences among the parties on thorny issues such as the reform of international financial institutions and clauses such as climate change. Since the 1940s, the United Nations and other global development governance mechanisms have made positive contributions to improving the lives of the poorest and most vulnerable people on the planet. Decades later, new global challenges and problems far exceed the response capacity and adaptation scope of existing international institutions. Against this backdrop, the Future Summit is committed to building consensus and laying the foundation for reshaping multilateralism.

6.Gaza suffersUnprecedented humanitarian crisis

(China Daily/picture)

Since Hamas militants raided Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a comprehensive siege and large-scale bombing of Gaza, and Gaza has fallen into a humanitarian disaster that continues to this day. According to UN data, at least 1.7 million people have been displaced multiple times due to the conflict, accounting for 75% of Gaza's population. The public health situation in Gaza has exceeded the crisis level. More than 1 million people do not have enough clean drinking water and face severe hunger, and more than 50,000 children need treatment for severe malnutrition. The health of Gaza residents continues to deteriorate, with 9 out of 10 children under the age of five suffering from at least one infectious disease, and 25% of women suffering from skin diseases and other health problems. The number of premature births and maternal deaths has increased, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) estimates that 155,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women cannot access prenatal and postnatal care. Despite the huge humanitarian needs in Gaza, at least half of the humanitarian aid missions have been hindered or forced to be cancelled due to operational or security reasons. Since the attack on the Rafah crossing in May this year, the delivery of vital humanitarian aid to Gaza has plummeted by two-thirds. The UN report "Expected Socio-Economic Impact of the Gaza War on the State of Palestine" released in October this year pointed out that the war has caused Palestine's development level to regress by about 69 years. It is expected that the poverty rate in Palestine will surge to 74% this year, affecting 4.1 million people, including 2.61 million new poor people. On November 20, the UN Security Council voted on the draft resolution on a ceasefire in Gaza proposed by 10 non-permanent members, but the draft resolution was not passed because the United States once again exercised its veto power.

7.Debt levels in developing countries continue to rise

（Pixers/Photo)

Under the influence of global shocks and challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, global public debt has reached an unprecedented level. In the past decade, the stock of external debt of developing countries has reached a shocking $11.4 trillion. Among them, the total public debt of the least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing countries (SIDS) reached $344 billion and $82 billion respectively. Among the 66 economically vulnerable emerging market and developing economies, 47 emerging market and developing economies with a total population of more than 1.11 billion will face the risk of bankruptcy in the next five years if they seek to increase investment to achieve climate and development goals. Rising debt levels have hindered economic growth and exacerbated poverty and inequality. In order to repay debts, developing countries are cutting public spending on health and education, and investment in sustainable transportation, infrastructure and energy has also been affected, affecting the poor and vulnerable groups. Increasingly stringent borrowing conditions and unfair international financial architecture have led to rising external borrowing costs. The borrowing interest rates of African countries are much higher than those of developed countries such as the United States and Germany, making it more difficult for developing countries to repay their external debts, pushing more countries into debt distress, and undermining the debt sustainability and sustainable development progress of developing countries. The G20 common debt framework proposed in 2020 is positive, but the negotiations have been slow and fail to address the complexities of debt problems and all countries. The Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank provides new tools to strengthen integration and manage climate risks. However, these are far from enough. The difficult and urgent debt problems urgently require improving the liquidity and debt repayment capacity of developing countries, and ultimately establishing a fair and binding long-term debt crisis resolution mechanism.

8.ChinapromoteForeign AidMechanism Reform

（Global Times/picture)

In July 2024, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee adopted the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization", which made strategic reform arrangements for promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. The "Decision" made special arrangements for deepening the reform of foreign aid systems and mechanisms, achieving full-chain management, and coordinating the promotion of major landmark projects and "small and beautiful" livelihood projects, pointing out the direction for the high-quality development of foreign aid in the new era. The report also emphasized that China is willing to increase its resource input in global development cooperation, commit to narrowing the North-South gap, and support and help developing countries accelerate their development. Since its establishment in 2018, the National International Development Agency has continued to be committed to deepening foreign aid reforms, building foreign aid laws and regulations, and officially issuing institutional documents such as the "Foreign Aid Management Measures", strengthening the overall coordination and unified management of foreign aid work in various fields and departments, and establishing strict approval procedures and project standards. In 2022, the International Development Agency compiled and issued the "Foreign Aid Project Evaluation Index System" and the "Foreign Aid Project Evaluation Guidance Manual", which significantly improved the scientificity, effectiveness and systematicness of foreign aid evaluation. The world is currently facing multiple challenges such as food security, war and conflict, humanitarian crises, cyber security, and climate change. There is still a long way to go to achieve the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. China's active promotion of foreign aid mechanism reform will help further promote global governance in the field of international development cooperation, promote the development and revitalization of the "Global South", and help achieve the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.   References https://www.un.org/pga/wp-content/uploads/sites/108/2024/03/SW-HLTD-Debt-Sustainability.pdf https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/11/1156776https://news.un.org/zh/story/2024/10/1132766 https://press.un.org/en/2024/sgsm22264.doc.htmhttps://news.un.org/zh/story/2024/06/1129621 https://news.un.org/zh/story/2024/09/1131446https://unctad.org/news/key-takeaways-cop29-and-road-ahead-developing-countries https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/45472e20-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/5e331623-en&_csp_=b14d4f60505d057b456dd1730d8fcea3&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=chapter https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/2024/10/what-is-the-world-bank-imf-debt-sustainability-framework-for-low-income-countries/ https://www.networkideas.org/ideas-publications/ideas-working-papers/2024/12/navigating-debt-sustainability-an-in-depth-analysis-of-the-imfs-debt-sustainability-framework-and-its-critique/ https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/navigating-debt-challenges-g20s-pursuit-sustainable-solutions https://www.devex.com/news/debt-levels-are-high-but-will-solutions-come-through-108564 https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/was-cop29-azerbaijan-failurehttps://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/11/cop29-4-key-takeaways/ http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0527/c1002-40000300.html https://time.com/7198466/disappointment-and-promise-of-cop29-climate-talks-baku/ https://www.devex.com/news/donald-trump-won-what-does-that-mean-for-development-108712 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/11/06/trump-presidency-global-impact-us-election-winner/ http://www.cidca.gov.cn/20240919/8eeae6778403415d8b1b13c9d1bed18a/c.html http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2024-06/16/c_1130162937.htm https://www.ochaopt.org/content/humanitarian-situation-update-237-gaza-strip https://www.idobserver.org/chinese/2024/09/26/futuresummit/ https://www.idobserver.org/chinese/2024/12/06/%e6%ac%a7%e6%b4%b2%e5%a4%9a%e5%9b%bd%e5%89%8a%e5%87%8f%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e5%90%88%e4%bd%9c%e9%a2%84%e7%ae%97/

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